Earlier this year, Facebook announced the launch of trending topics on its newsfeed page. Like Twitter trends, which reflect the attention landscape in the Twittersphere, Facebook trends showcase the most popular news stories within the Facebook world — algorithmically determined from publicly shared posts of its 757 million daily users. Here at betaworks, we have always been curious to explore how news events spread on Facebook via trending topics.
Massive pro-democracy protests took place in Hong Kong last week. More than half a million individuals (most of whom were students) decided to occupy Central, the heart of Hong Kong. I chronologically tracked five news events reported from Hong Kong during the protests and studied their evolution within the Facebook media ecology. Using Facebook trending data, I was able to spot which news stories became trends while which ones failed to, and which trends persisted while others died off.
Online news media has rapidly transformed into a mobile, real-time phenomenon. There are several news stories that compete within the Facebook ecosystem to make it into the trending list. Trends sustain on the top-10 trending list when enough people see a post and themselves share it. Few news stories make it to the trending list, even lesser sustain in the list for long periods of time. Sustained presence of a news in the trending list promises increased attention from the users and a possibility of further sharing that in turn will make sure the story remain trending.
Here are the highlights from the original post:
We found three driving factors that determine if a news is going to sustain in the trending list. Two of the factors are well known in news-cycle evolution, but the third one seems to be a Facebook-only phenomenon. Our data provides evidence that these factors led to disproportional attention regarding Hong Kong protests in different geographical communities on Facebook. However, the interesting thing with this dataset is we can quantitatively measure the impact of each of these factors on the news story.
- Diurnal Patterns
People don’t share when they are sleeping (at least we hope not). Diurnal patterns are common in social media, and there is no exception in Facebook. A piece of news that breaks late in the evening has a lesser chance of sustaining as a trend.
2. Number of Competing News Stories
The number of competing news trends in a geographical community affects the trend sustainability. Competing stories reflects the ecological conflict that a piece of news faces to break into the top-10 list and maintain its spot. Using a technique called Likelihood Estimation, we can estimate the chance that a news story will get into the trending list. Note this is not a measure of sustainability, its only a reading of the probability of even breaking into the top-10 trend list.
Competing news stories offer lesser likelihood that any particular story will be able to make an appearance in the top-10 trending list. This likelihood is unbalanced depending strongly on the geographical region. For example, the likelihood of a news story making it as a Facebook trend is nearly 1.75 times as high in Australia compared to the USA. [INTERACTIVE visualization]
3. The Escape Velocity
The potential of a news story to sustain in the top-10 list appears to be strongly influenced by a key phenomenon: how long the trend can maintain a top-3 spot on the trending list. If the news piece maintains such a top-3 spot for more than 1.5 hours after breaking into the trending list, then it has a significant chance of persisting as a trend for the next ~12-18 hours.
In fact, between Aug. 26th and Sept. 4th, I found that only 12% of news stories which break on a day end up occupying ~72% of the trending slots for the next ~16–18 hours. What’s common among these 12% of stories? They all had risen as high as the top-3 trend and had survived there for at least 1.5 hrs. In fact, stories that did not last for 1.5 hrs in the top-3 had a 57% chance of falling off from the top-10 list within the next 6 hours. Thus, the first 1.5 hours in the trending list is critical in a news story’s longevity and a powerful symptom for trend sustenance on Facebook.
The initial number of shares within the first 1.5 hrs is critical in giving the news enough ‘escape velocity’. This velocity enables the trend to last in the top-3 long enough in the face of competing trends. And this is what makes a marked difference; why we observe the same piece of breaking news being able to sustain as a trend in one geographical region while dying in another.
But what’s so special about the top-3 trending slots? Possibly a subtle Facebook design feature !